Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 19.812974 21.470092 23.254473 25.327889 27.682498 30.287117 33.405368
2025-09-14 17.166327 19.436733 22.047630 25.308228 29.323237 34.176805 40.601650
2025-09-21 15.203921 17.793048 20.924548 25.067085 30.524554 37.655741 48.019895
2025-09-28 14.245383 17.164902 20.859628 26.015645 33.265821 43.514242 59.974612
2025-10-05 13.081887 16.107542 20.069152 25.830903 34.366398 47.248850 69.844898
2025-10-12 12.177888 15.272875 19.445677 25.739526 35.514149 51.203606 81.226820
2025-10-19 11.552850 14.738794 19.153923 26.049732 37.268961 56.444386 96.737753
2025-10-26 10.880732 14.071203 18.591138 25.854790 38.141549 60.314290 111.051547
2025-11-02 10.282189 13.454738 18.036674 25.588680 38.821983 63.945801 126.443947
2025-11-09 9.824262 13.003379 17.682050 25.589546 39.949535 68.692503 147.043025
2025-11-16 9.363118 12.512529 17.221770 25.353887 40.589188 72.565811 167.592284
2025-11-23 8.968012 12.093084 16.836674 25.198310 41.345962 76.883153 192.522850
2025-11-30 8.584765 11.676179 16.436719 24.997209 42.030646 81.360834 222.365937
2025-12-07 8.254101 11.321323 16.112049 24.899641 42.922779 86.671369 261.211445
2025-12-14 7.918175 10.939013 15.715131 24.628410 43.404773 91.094360 301.959743
2025-12-21 7.822848 10.929010 15.934581 25.535156 46.652863 104.510518 412.780206
2025-12-28 7.545232 10.610747 15.606806 25.347331 47.345690 110.570352 493.734882
2026-01-04 7.304336 10.339182 15.341061 25.254727 48.254800 117.758435 605.103479
2026-01-11 7.142267 10.187624 15.273823 25.554669 50.198857 129.500860 809.597549
2026-01-18 6.917226 9.920442 14.983848 25.364294 50.848382 136.828378 1009.322372
2026-01-25 6.697107 9.651463 14.674774 25.105133 51.276312 143.579620 1257.634943
2026-02-01 6.527464 9.459789 14.494681 25.105804 52.426228 154.121137 1708.362235
2026-02-08 6.336828 9.224230 14.220614 24.876525 52.891170 161.955372 2245.033815